Most SEO forecasts turn a chain of uncertain assumptions into one precise-looking number: estimate demand, assume a ranking improvement, apply a click-through rate, then convert the resulting traffic into revenue. But changing search behaviour, imperfect measurement and unpredictable delivery timelines make that number much harder to defend.

In this talk, James Yorke introduces the Range Model - a practical six-step approach covering baseline, grouping, evidence, scenarios, delivery and review. Using a fictional ecommerce example, he will show how to forecast what would happen without the work, use first-party evidence where it is available, build conservative, central and upside scenarios, account for delivery risk and test which assumptions matter most.

Attendees will leave with a practical framework they can apply to their own forecasts, reports and business cases. They will also learn how to explain uncertainty without sounding vague - and give decision-makers a clearer view of what might happen, what could change the outcome and when the forecast should be revised.